Finland’s president Alexander Stubb has warned that security guarantees for Ukraine suggested by the so-called “coalition of the willing”, would include a clear commitment from the European countries to fight Russia in case of aggression.
“Security guarantees in essence are a deterrent. That deterrent has to be plausible and in order for it to be plausible it has to be strong,” Stubb told media on Sunday before travelling to New York for the UN general assembly.
Stubb explained that security guarantees offered to Ukraine must be backed by real force and genuine readiness to act, otherwise, they are “meaningless”. His comments mark a major shift from the policy of Western countries that have so far avoided any direct military confrontation with Russia. So far, NATO and the EU have provided Ukraine military assistance only in the form of weapons and military training of Ukrainian troops. The Finnish president said security guarantee would enter force only after a future deal between Russia and Ukraine but stressed that Moscow would have no say in the structure of such agreements. “Russia has absolutely no say in the sovereign decisions of an independent nation state. So for me it’s not an issue will Russia agree or not. Of course they won’t, but that’s not the point,” he said.
Twenty-six of Ukraine’s allies agreed to provide post-war security guarantees for Ukraine that would include an international force on land, air and the sea after a summit held in Paris on September 4. "We now have 26 countries that have formally committed to deploy a force of reassurance for Ukraine armed forces ... to be present on the ground, at sea or in the sky,” French President Emmanuel Macron said after the meeting.
The security guarantees are aimed at reassuring Ukraine and deterring Russia, which started a full-fledged war against Ukraine in February 2022. It's still uncertain whether there is enough political will for such a commitment in most European capitals, where promises to a postwar Ukraine have often been presented more as "reassurances" than solid commitment.
It’s worth noting that Stubb has emerged as a key intermediary in diplomatic efforts around Ukraine in recent month, maintaining a close relationship with US President Donald Trump. The security guarantee offered by the “coalition of the willing” takes place amid the growing uncertainty about the Trump administration’s stance over Russia-Ukraine war.
